Halmstad vs Sirius
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-03 · 17:00
The score model makes an Sirius win the most likely outcome at 63%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Halmstad 1.04 – 2.19 Sirius.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstad win | 16.5% | 13.5% | +3.0% |
| Draw | 20.4% | 19.0% | +1.5% |
| Sirius win | 63.1% | 67.5% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 65.0% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.5% | 44.6% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 56.6% | +1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 44.4% | -4.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Halmstad 37.9 / Sirius 38.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.