Halmstad vs Sirius
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-03 · 19:00 CET
LDWLL
LLLWWThe score model made a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 63%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Halmstad 1.04 – 2.21 Sirius.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstad win | 16.3% | 12.9% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 18.6% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Sirius win | 63.3% | 68.5% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 65.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 45.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 56.4% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 44.9% | -4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Halmstad 37.8 / Sirius 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.