Goteborg vs Degerfors
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-02 · 12:00
The score model makes a Goteborg win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goteborg 1.63 – 0.99 Degerfors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg win | 51.8% | 53.8% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.4% | +0.4% |
| Degerfors win | 22.4% | 20.8% | +1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 53.1% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 32.5% | -5.7% |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 54.2% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 36.3% | -2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goteborg 38.9 / Degerfors 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.