Goteborg vs Degerfors
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-02 · 14:00 CET
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WLLWLThe score model made a Goteborg win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goteborg 1.63 – 0.99 Degerfors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg win | 51.7% | 53.4% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.6% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Degerfors win | 22.4% | 21.0% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 53.1% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 32.5% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 54.4% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 36.3% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goteborg 38.8 / Degerfors 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.