Brommapojkarna vs Malmo FF
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-02 · 12:00
The score model makes an Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brommapojkarna 1.34 – 1.85 Malmo FF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna win | 27.3% | 30.2% | -2.8% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 26.4% | -2.7% |
| Malmo FF win | 49.0% | 43.4% | +5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 58.3% | +3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 37.5% | +1.8% |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 61.4% | +1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 39.7% | +4.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brommapojkarna 38 / Malmo FF 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.