Sirius vs Goteborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-07-26 · 14:00 CET
DLLLW
WLDWWThe score model made a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sirius 2.24 – 1.22 Goteborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius win | 60.2% | 64.0% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 20.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Goteborg win | 19.5% | 15.9% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | 66.0% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.4% | 45.5% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 60.1% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.5% | 45.7% | -3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sirius 38.6 / Goteborg 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.