Malmo FF vs Elfsborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-07-26 · 16:30 CET
LWLWD
WWDWLThe score model made a Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF 2.01 – 1.18 Elfsborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 56.3% | 50.3% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 25.4% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Elfsborg win | 21.6% | 24.3% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 56.2% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 35.5% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 57.9% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.6% | 38.6% | +6.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF 38.5 / Elfsborg 39.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.