GAIS vs Halmstad
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-07-26 · 16:30 CET
WLLWD
LLDWLThe score model made a GAIS win the most likely outcome at 65%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GAIS 1.74 – 0.59 Halmstad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAIS win | 64.8% | 70.3% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 18.6% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Halmstad win | 11.9% | 11.1% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 58.5% | -17.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 37.4% | -16.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.1% | 48.6% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 39.7% | -8.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: GAIS 34.7 / Halmstad 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.