Rosengard W vs Hammarby W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 14:00 CET
WLWLD
WWLWWThe score model makes a Hammarby W win the most likely outcome at 67%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Hammarby W win — 66.6% vs 60.1% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rosengard W 0.79 – 2.00 Hammarby W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosengard W win | 14.7% | 17.3% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 18.7% | 22.5% | -3.8% |
| Hammarby W win | 66.6% | 60.1% | +6.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Rosengard W 38.4 / Hammarby W 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rosengard W vs Hammarby W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.