Pitea W vs Malmo FF W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 13:00 CET
LDLWL
LWWWDThe score model makes a Malmo FF W win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Pitea W win — 24.0% vs 18.8% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pitea W 1.03 – 1.69 Malmo FF W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pitea W win | 24.0% | 18.8% | +5.2% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 24.1% | -1.9% |
| Malmo FF W win | 53.8% | 57.1% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pitea W 38.4 / Malmo FF W 30.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pitea W vs Malmo FF W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.