Malmo FF W vs Norrkoping W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-11-02 · 18:00 CET
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WLDWWThe score model makes a Malmo FF W win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.3% vs 57.3% implied (+10.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF W 2.18 – 0.70 Norrkoping W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF W win | 72.3% | 71.1% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 16.4% | 17.4% | -1.0% |
| Norrkoping W win | 11.3% | 11.5% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 62.8% | -7.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 42.7% | -10.0% |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 51.2% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 43.7% | -6.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Malmo FF W 29.6 / Norrkoping W 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Malmo FF W vs Norrkoping W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.