Hammarby W vs IF Brommapojkarna W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-10-04 · 15:00 CET
WWLWW
WWWWLThe score model made a Hammarby W win the most likely outcome at 89%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby W 3.39 – 0.63 IF Brommapojkarna W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby W win | 88.5% | 83.6% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 7.5% | 11.2% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| IF Brommapojkarna W win | 4.0% | 5.2% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.5% | 71.2% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57.0% | 51.5% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 44.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 59.6% | 47.4% | +12.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hammarby W 37 / IF Brommapojkarna W 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.