Djurgarden W vs AIK W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-10-04 · 14:00 CET
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DWWWLThe score model made a Djurgarden W win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Djurgarden W 1.53 – 1.39 AIK W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgarden W win | 41.9% | 28.9% | +13.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 25.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| AIK W win | 35.6% | 45.3% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 54.8% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 34.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 58.2% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 37.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Djurgarden W 37 / AIK W 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.