Pitea W vs Hacken W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 12:00
The score model makes an Hacken W win the most likely outcome at 73%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pitea W 0.62 – 2.11 Hacken W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pitea W win | 10.0% | 11.9% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 17.4% | 19.5% | -2.1% |
| Hacken W win | 72.6% | 68.5% | +4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 56.8% | -5.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 37.0% | -7.7% |
| Both teams to score | 40.2% | 48.1% | -7.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 39.8% | -11.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pitea W 33.3 / Hacken W 33.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.