Pitea W vs Hacken W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 14:00 CET
WDWLD
WWDWWThe score model made a Hacken W win the most likely outcome at 72%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pitea W 0.63 – 2.08 Hacken W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitea W win | 10.6% | 11.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.5% | 18.7% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Hacken W win | 71.9% | 69.8% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 59.1% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 38.6% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 40.2% | 49.2% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 41.1% | -13.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pitea W 33.2 / Hacken W 33.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.