Djurgarden W vs Uppsala W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-08 · 13:00
The score model makes a Djurgarden W win the most likely outcome at 57%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Djurgarden W 1.91 – 1.11 Uppsala W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgarden W win | 56.6% | 74.2% | -17.7% |
| Draw | 21.1% | 15.8% | +5.3% |
| Uppsala W win | 22.3% | 9.9% | +12.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 69.4% | -11.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 51.0% | -15.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 54.6% | +2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 50.1% | -8.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Djurgarden W 33.4 / Uppsala W 13.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.