AIK W vs IF Brommapojkarna W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-07 · 17:00
The score model makes a AIK W win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AIK W 2.25 – 1.47 IF Brommapojkarna W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIK W win | 55.4% | 51.4% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 19.3% | 24.8% | -5.5% |
| IF Brommapojkarna W win | 25.3% | 23.9% | +1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | 58.1% | +13.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.0% | 37.4% | +13.6% |
| Both teams to score | 68.5% | 59.2% | +9.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.8% | 40.5% | +5.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AIK W 30.4 / IF Brommapojkarna W 33.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.