AIK W vs IF Brommapojkarna W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-07 · 19:00 CET
LLLDW
LDDWWThe score model made an AIK W win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AIK W 2.24 – 1.47 IF Brommapojkarna W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIK W win | 55.4% | 53.0% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.3% | 24.3% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| IF Brommapojkarna W win | 25.3% | 22.7% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | 59.4% | +12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.0% | 39.3% | +11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.5% | 59.1% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.8% | 41.5% | +4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AIK W 30.2 / IF Brommapojkarna W 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.