San Sebastian Reyes vs Real Madrid C
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 12:00 CET
LWWWL
DDLWWThe score model makes a San Sebastian Reyes win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Real Madrid C win — 20.3% vs 16.4% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: San Sebastian Reyes 1.45 – 0.82 Real Madrid C.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Sebastian Reyes win | 51.1% | 55.9% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 27.6% | +1.0% |
| Real Madrid C win | 20.3% | 16.4% | +3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 38.5% | +1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 20.6% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 39.9% | +3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 27.4% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: San Sebastian Reyes 43.4 / Real Madrid C 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.