Navalcarnero vs Getafe B
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 16:30 CET
DDWWD
LDDLWThe score model makes a Navalcarnero win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.3% vs 68.9% implied (+4.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Navalcarnero 1.53 – 1.09 Getafe B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navalcarnero win | 46.4% | 44.7% | +1.7% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.9% | +0.5% |
| Getafe B win | 26.2% | 28.5% | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 51.2% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 31.1% | -4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 55.3% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 35.4% | -4.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Navalcarnero 45.3 / Getafe B 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Navalcarnero vs Getafe B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.