Conquense vs Guadalajara
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 17:00 CET
LWDWD
WLDWDThe score model makes a Conquense win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 58.1% vs 53.8% implied (+4.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Conquense 1.81 – 1.21 Guadalajara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conquense win | 50.5% | 51.4% | -0.9% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.2% | -0.5% |
| Guadalajara win | 24.8% | 23.4% | +1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 53.8% | +4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 33.7% | +2.0% |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 55.3% | +4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 37.4% | +1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Conquense 36.8 / Guadalajara 26.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Conquense vs Guadalajara in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.