Guadalajara vs Navalcarnero
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
DWLDW
WDDWWThe score model makes a Guadalajara win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Guadalajara win — 50.4% vs 47.3% implied (+3.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Guadalajara 1.85 – 1.26 Navalcarnero.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara win | 50.4% | 47.3% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.1% | -0.6% |
| Navalcarnero win | 25.1% | 27.6% | -2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 58.8% | +1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 38.2% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | 60.3% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 41.1% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Guadalajara 25.7 / Navalcarnero 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Guadalajara vs Navalcarnero in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.