Getafe B vs San Sebastian Reyes
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 11:30 CET
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WLWWWThe score model makes a Getafe B win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 68.8% vs 66.6% implied (+2.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Getafe B 1.31 – 1.29 San Sebastian Reyes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe B win | 36.3% | 34.7% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.6% | +0.8% |
| San Sebastian Reyes win | 35.3% | 37.7% | -2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 47.4% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 27.9% | -1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 52.7% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 33.4% | -2.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Getafe B 42.2 / San Sebastian Reyes 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Getafe B vs San Sebastian Reyes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.