CF Talavera vs Conquense
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 17:00 CET
WWDWL
LWDWDThe score model makes a CF Talavera win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: CF Talavera win — 43.5% vs 36.2% implied (+7.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CF Talavera 1.31 – 0.96 Conquense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Talavera win | 43.5% | 36.2% | +7.3% |
| Draw | 30.2% | 30.2% | +0.0% |
| Conquense win | 26.3% | 33.6% | -7.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 41.2% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 23.1% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 48.5% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 29.7% | -3.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: CF Talavera 23.7 / Conquense 37.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CF Talavera vs Conquense in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.