RSD Alcala vs Navalcarnero
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-10-04 · 12:00 CET
WLWLL
LWDLWThe score model made an RSD Alcala win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RSD Alcala 1.57 – 0.93 Navalcarnero.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSD Alcala win | 51.6% | 45.3% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Navalcarnero win | 21.9% | 27.2% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 47.2% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 28.0% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 51.5% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 32.9% | +0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RSD Alcala 25.3 / Navalcarnero 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.