Navalcarnero vs Conquense
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-09-27 · 18:00 CET
LWDLW
DWWWLThe score model made a Navalcarnero win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Navalcarnero 1.08 – 0.96 Conquense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navalcarnero win | 36.8% | 31.0% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.3% | 31.3% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Conquense win | 30.9% | 37.7% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.4% | 39.0% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.0% | 20.8% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 41.8% | 46.5% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 27.7% | -4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Navalcarnero 42.4 / Conquense 33.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.