Getafe B vs CF Talavera
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 11:30 CET
WLLDL
WWLLDThe score model made a Getafe B win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Getafe B 1.34 – 0.85 CF Talavera.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe B win | 47.4% | 42.0% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 29.1% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| CF Talavera win | 22.8% | 29.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.5% | 39.7% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.9% | 21.7% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 46.3% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 29.0% | -7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Getafe B 38.6 / CF Talavera 18.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.