Xerez CD vs Antoniano
Segunda Division B - Group 4, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 18:00 CET
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LDLWLThe score model makes a Xerez CD win the most likely outcome at 57%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 60.3% vs 51.2% implied (+9.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Xerez CD 1.54 – 0.73 Antoniano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xerez CD win | 56.6% | 60.2% | -3.6% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 23.9% | +1.9% |
| Antoniano win | 17.5% | 15.9% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 48.8% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 28.6% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 40.9% | 46.5% | -5.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 33.7% | -7.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Xerez CD 38.4 / Antoniano 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Xerez CD vs Antoniano in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.