Don Benito vs Puente Genil
Segunda Division B - Group 4, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
LLWDW
LWWDDThe score model makes a Don Benito win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.9% vs 75.5% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Don Benito 1.31 – 0.94 Puente Genil.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don Benito win | 45.1% | 48.1% | -3.0% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.8% | +0.4% |
| Puente Genil win | 26.7% | 24.1% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.1% | 43.8% | -4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.1% | 24.5% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 48.4% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.3% | 30.6% | -5.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Don Benito 18.1 / Puente Genil 28.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Don Benito vs Puente Genil in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.