CD Estepona vs Don Benito
Segunda Division B - Group 4, Spain · 2026-10-03 · 19:00 CET
DLWLW
WWDWLThe score model made a CD Estepona win the most likely outcome at 53%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CD Estepona 1.54 – 0.88 Don Benito.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Estepona win | 52.7% | 46.6% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Don Benito win | 21.4% | 24.6% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 43.2% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 24.2% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 48.1% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.3% | 29.9% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CD Estepona 40.1 / Don Benito 14.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.