Xerez CD vs Don Benito
Segunda Division B - Group 4, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 19:00 CET
DDWDL
WLDWWThe score model made a Xerez CD win the most likely outcome at 53%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Xerez CD 1.31 – 0.62 Don Benito.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xerez CD win | 53.2% | 51.2% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.6% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Don Benito win | 17.5% | 20.2% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.3% | 42.4% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.0% | 24.1% | -11.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 33.8% | 45.9% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.3% | 29.4% | -8.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Xerez CD 34 / Don Benito 12.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.