Poblense vs Valencia B
Segunda Division B - Group 3, Spain · 2026-09-27 · 12:00 CET
WLLLL
WLDLLThe score model makes a Poblense win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Poblense 1.36 – 0.95 Valencia B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poblense win | 46.5% | — | — |
| Draw | 27.3% | — | — |
| Valencia B win | 26.3% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Poblense 23.9 / Valencia B 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.