Alcoyano vs Poblense
Segunda Division B - Group 3, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 11:30 CET
WDDDL
WWLLLThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 17%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alcoyano 0.80 – 0.61 Poblense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcoyano win | 36.6% | 43.2% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 38.1% | 31.8% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Poblense win | 25.3% | 25.0% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 16.7% | 34.8% | -18.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5.4% | 18.7% | -13.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 25.0% | 41.8% | -16.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 25.7% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alcoyano 23.9 / Poblense 23 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.