Valencia B vs Castellon B
Segunda Division B - Group 3, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 19:00 CET
WWLDL
LWLLWThe score model made a Valencia B win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 79%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valencia B 2.62 – 1.58 Castellon B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia B win | 60.0% | 44.5% | +15.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.1% | 27.1% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Castellon B win | 21.9% | 28.4% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.0% | 51.8% | +27.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60.5% | 31.0% | +29.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 73.7% | 55.5% | +18.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 62.7% | 34.3% | +28.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valencia B 41.2 / Castellon B 24 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.