Ebro vs Utebo FC
Segunda Division B - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
WLLDW
DLDDWThe score model makes an Ebro win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.3% vs 68.7% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ebro 1.45 – 0.98 Utebo FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ebro win | 47.2% | 49.6% | -2.4% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.1% | +2.1% |
| Utebo FC win | 24.6% | 24.3% | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | 51.2% | -7.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.7% | 31.3% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 54.4% | -5.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 35.9% | -3.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ebro 28.4 / Utebo FC 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ebro vs Utebo FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.