Tudelano vs Ebro
Segunda Division B - Group 2, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 17:00 CET
LLDDL
WWLLDThe score model makes a Tudelano win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.2% vs 73.2% implied (+2.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tudelano 1.41 – 1.11 Ebro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tudelano win | 42.9% | 43.5% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.1% | +0.2% |
| Ebro win | 28.8% | 28.4% | +0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 46.2% | +0.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 26.8% | -2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 51.2% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 32.6% | +0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Tudelano 44 / Ebro 27.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tudelano vs Ebro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.