Naxara vs Barbastro
Segunda Division B - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-27 · 17:00 CET
WLLLL
WDWDLThe score model makes a Barbastro win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Naxara 1.08 – 1.10 Barbastro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naxara win | 34.1% | — | — |
| Draw | 30.5% | — | — |
| Barbastro win | 35.3% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Naxara 29.1 / Barbastro 18.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.