Compostela vs Ourense CF
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 17:00 CET
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LLWDLThe score model makes a Compostela win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 63.5% vs 52.6% implied (+10.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Compostela 1.27 – 0.89 Ourense CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compostela win | 44.7% | 41.1% | +3.6% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 27.7% | +2.0% |
| Ourense CF win | 25.6% | 31.2% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.5% | 47.4% | -10.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.2% | 27.5% | -10.3% |
| Both teams to score | 42.8% | 52.6% | -9.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.0% | 33.3% | -8.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Compostela 25.4 / Ourense CF 15.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Compostela vs Ourense CF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.