Rayo Cantabria vs Torrelavega
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 15:30 CET
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DLLLDThe score model makes a Rayo Cantabria win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.8% vs 61.7% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rayo Cantabria 1.75 – 1.04 Torrelavega.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Cantabria win | 53.8% | 53.4% | +0.4% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.5% | -0.1% |
| Torrelavega win | 21.9% | 22.1% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 55.3% | -2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 34.8% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 56.3% | -2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 38.3% | -5.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Rayo Cantabria 44.4 / Torrelavega 25.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rayo Cantabria vs Torrelavega in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.