Llanera vs Bergantinos
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 16:00 CET
DWLLL
WDWLDThe score model makes a Bergantinos win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 59.6% vs 55.1% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Llanera 1.21 – 1.87 Bergantinos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Llanera win | 24.4% | 26.4% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.6% | -2.4% |
| Bergantinos win | 52.4% | 48.0% | +4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 55.1% | +4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 34.8% | +2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 57.6% | +2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 38.4% | +0.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Llanera 18.1 / Bergantinos 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Llanera vs Bergantinos in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.