Compostela vs Oviedo B
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-04 · 17:00 CET
LDWLL
WLLDWThe score model made a Compostela win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Compostela 1.16 – 1.10 Oviedo B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compostela win | 37.1% | 40.6% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 29.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Oviedo B win | 34.3% | 30.0% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 44.1% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 24.6% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 49.7% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 30.5% | -3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Compostela 21.4 / Oviedo B 31.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.