Torrelavega vs Marino de Luanco
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-03 · 17:00 CET
WLLDL
WLLLWThe score model made a Torrelavega win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torrelavega 1.03 – 1.01 Marino de Luanco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrelavega win | 35.4% | 42.8% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 29.5% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Marino de Luanco win | 34.2% | 27.7% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.5% | 41.8% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.1% | 23.2% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.9% | 47.8% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 29.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torrelavega 21.4 / Marino de Luanco 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.