Torrelavega vs Bergantinos
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 12:00 CET
LWLWL
WLWDWThe score model made a Torrelavega win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torrelavega 1.27 – 1.23 Bergantinos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrelavega win | 37.5% | 41.3% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 28.4% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Bergantinos win | 35.4% | 30.3% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 46.9% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 27.5% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 52.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 32.5% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torrelavega 20.1 / Bergantinos 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.