Atl. Astorga vs Marino de Luanco
Segunda Division B - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 17:00 CET
DWDLL
WWLWLThe score model made a Marino de Luanco win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atl. Astorga 0.95 – 0.96 Marino de Luanco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atl. Astorga win | 33.8% | 38.9% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 30.1% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Marino de Luanco win | 34.5% | 30.9% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.9% | 39.7% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.7% | 21.6% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.9% | 46.7% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 27.9% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atl. Astorga 23 / Marino de Luanco 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.