Villarreal B vs Antequera
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 18:45 CET
WLDWW
WDDLDThe score model made a Villarreal B win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Villarreal B 1.76 – 0.86 Antequera.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal B win | 58.2% | 52.5% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 26.5% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Antequera win | 17.7% | 21.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 49.3% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 29.3% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 50.8% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 34.5% | +0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Villarreal B 38.7 / Antequera 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Villarreal B vs Antequera in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.