Murcia vs CE Europa
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 16:30 CET
WLWDL
WLWLLThe score model made a Murcia win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Murcia 1.65 – 0.99 CE Europa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 52.3% | 54.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.8% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| CE Europa win | 22.2% | 18.9% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 45.8% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 25.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 47.4% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 32.7% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Murcia 47.4 / CE Europa 26.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Murcia vs CE Europa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.