Atl. Madrid B vs Murcia
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-13 · 20:30 CET
WLWDW
LWWWWThe score model made an Atl. Madrid B win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atl. Madrid B 1.45 – 1.01 Murcia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atl. Madrid B win | 46.6% | 39.9% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 29.1% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Murcia win | 25.9% | 31.0% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 47.9% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 28.3% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 52.9% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 32.7% | -1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atl. Madrid B 44.1 / Murcia 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.