CE Europa vs Hercules
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 16:30 CET
DLWLD
WWDLLThe score model makes a CE Europa win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: CE Europa win — 48.5% vs 30.1% implied (+18.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CE Europa 1.60 – 1.10 Hercules.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CE Europa win | 48.5% | 30.1% | +18.3% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 29.8% | -3.9% |
| Hercules win | 25.6% | 40.0% | -14.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 42.5% | +8.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 23.5% | +5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 48.8% | +5.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.6% | 29.3% | -6.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CE Europa 26.1 / Hercules 38.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.