Antequera vs Alcorcon
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 16:30 CET
WWWWL
LWDDDThe score model makes an Antequera win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Antequera win — 44.6% vs 33.8% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Antequera 1.46 – 1.11 Alcorcon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antequera win | 44.6% | 33.8% | +10.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 30.4% | -3.2% |
| Alcorcon win | 28.2% | 35.7% | -7.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 41.7% | +5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 23.6% | +1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 48.8% | +3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 28.3% | -0.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Antequera 44.3 / Alcorcon 38.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.