Gimnastic vs Algeciras
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-11 · 21:15 CET
LLDWW
WWLWWThe score model made a Gimnastic win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 4:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimnastic 1.23 – 0.95 Algeciras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnastic win | 42.0% | 44.1% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 29.4% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Algeciras win | 27.8% | 26.4% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.0% | 42.1% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.5% | 22.6% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 48.0% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 29.0% | +3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimnastic 29 / Algeciras 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gimnastic vs Algeciras in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.