Lugo vs Merida AD
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-11-01 · 18:45 CET
WWWWL
DWLLLThe score model makes a Lugo win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.8% vs 72.0% implied (+3.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lugo 1.45 – 1.05 Merida AD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 45.9% | 43.0% | +2.9% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.1% | -0.6% |
| Merida AD win | 26.6% | 28.9% | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 48.5% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 28.0% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 53.5% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 33.7% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lugo 47.4 / Merida AD 11.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lugo vs Merida AD in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.