Racing Club Ferrol vs Barakaldo
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 16:30 CET
LWWWL
DDLWDThe score model made a Racing Club Ferrol win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Racing Club Ferrol 1.14 – 1.07 Barakaldo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club Ferrol win | 36.8% | 45.9% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 28.2% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Barakaldo win | 32.9% | 25.9% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 42.4% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 23.4% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | 47.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 29.0% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Racing Club Ferrol 30.1 / Barakaldo 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Racing Club Ferrol vs Barakaldo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.