Real Aviles vs Unionistas
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 18:45 CET
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WDWLLThe score model makes a Real Aviles win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 62.4% vs 46.3% implied (+16.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Aviles 1.67 – 1.55 Unionistas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Aviles win | 40.3% | 44.9% | -4.5% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 28.5% | -4.0% |
| Unionistas win | 35.2% | 26.6% | +8.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | 46.3% | +16.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.2% | 26.7% | +13.5% |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | 51.1% | +13.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 31.9% | +1.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Aviles 26.7 / Unionistas 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.