Pontevedra vs Ath Bilbao B
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 16:30 CET
WLDWW
LWLDWThe score model made a Pontevedra win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pontevedra 1.44 – 0.72 Ath Bilbao B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra win | 53.7% | 44.8% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 31.3% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 18.0% | 23.9% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 39.9% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.3% | 22.0% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.8% | 45.6% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 29.1% | -5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pontevedra 29.6 / Ath Bilbao B 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.